Polling from Mandel-Aligned Outside Group Confirms Josh Mandel’s Support is Plummeting while Jane Timken Surges

Latest Club for Growth Poll Shows Mandel Losing Nearly 40% of Support on the Ballot Since Last Poll, Jane Timken Doubling

January 10, 2022

CANTON, OH – In a new poll released today from the Josh Mandel aligned group Club For Growth, career-politician Josh Mandel has hemorrhaged his support on the ballot by nearly 40%, losing 14 percentage points since the last Club for Growth Poll (26% today, down from 40% in August), while first-time candidate Jane Timken has doubled her support on the ballot and is in clear second place. The Club’s latest poll validates key takeaways from recent internal polling showing Jane Timken in second place and closing in on first, as Mandel’s early lead based entirely on name recognition corrodes. 

“In a desperate attempt to chase our recent polling, Josh Mandel’s own supporters have confirmed what we all know – Mandel is hemorrhaging support while Jane Timken is surging as the fresh leader, clear alternative, and genuine America First candidate that Ohioans are responding to,” said Timken Communications Director Mandi Merritt. 

The Club for Growth poll also mirrors recent Timken internals showing J.D. Vance’s campaign failed to get off the ground and he is now underwater with GOP primary voters with single digit support on the ballot as Ohioans learn about his past Never-Trump record. 

Key findings of the Timken internal poll released last week, trends largely confirmed by today’s Club for Growth poll, include: 

  • Timken is in a statistical tie for the lead as her ballot position, image, and statewide awareness continue to surge at the right time.
    • This continued growth comes when two other candidates and two outside-aligned groups are spending more on paid advertising. 
  • The more Ohio voters learn about Timken, the more they like her, while Mandel has the reverse effect and continues to fall on the ballot.
    • Mandel is vulnerable as Ohio voters are clearly looking for an alternative. 
    • Mandel’s early lead was entirely a product of his perennial candidacies for public office since the 1990s and spending well over $50 million in past campaigns, but he continues to see a decline in his numbers and is underperforming relative to his name ID.
  • JD Vance is underwater as his Never-Trump record continues to come to light.
    • Vance is running in fifth place, despite a $10,000,000 Super PAC boost, and is the only candidate with a higher unfavorable than favorable rating. 
  • Mike Gibbons continues to remain relatively stagnant despite this being his second statewide campaign and spending a massive amount of money on paid advertising.  

These survey results prove that Jane Timken is running a winning campaign as Ohio voters are clearly responding to her America First message, relentless grassroots campaign, and strong record of leadership. The results also come on the heels of a new endorsement from Congresswoman and House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, buoying the endorsements of over 170 conservative leaders in Ohio, Governor Kristi Noem, Maggie’s List, and VIEW PAC. 

Read the full polling memo below. 

The poll was conducted by Moore Information Group.


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